Thankfully it is Friday, and the markets are closed over the weekend. For some this week will have been a week of hell and for others, it was probably their best week since 2020. Volatility is still extremely high, so ranges are expanding, and opportunities are plentiful. You just need a very wide stop and to reduce the position size. Next week is going to be dominated by the ECB, BoE and US NFP. So more excitement to come.
Market Wrap
It has been a busy end to the week with the US equities markets may be attempting one final rally to unwind some of the bearishness seen over the past month. There is an element of end of month rebalancing but overall, selling any rallies is a good way forward. Until the economic dynamics change at least.
The UK FTSE100 came down and tested the H4 200-period EMA which was a significant level in the video analysis I delivered this morning. 7540 now acts as significant resistance and possibly the launch level lower as I am expecting the 7300 to be tested next week.
Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said today that it is "possible" that there could be a pause in interest rate hikes after the initial one set for spring, as the Federal Reserve assesses the impact of its actions on the economy and other factors. According to the analysis of the prime banks, this statement goes against multiple rate hikes expected this year. Several analysts are calling for seven increases. According to Kashkari, the first rate rise will occur in March, "barring something unforeseen in the economy."
Consumer and business sentiment in the Eurozone fell further in January than in December, according to a report released today by the European Commission.
In the European Union, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) fell by 1.4 points to 111.6, while in the Eurozone it fell by 1.1 to 112.7, however, the index remained high overall. As for the Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI), it dropped by 0.5 points to 113.1 in the EU and by 0.2 to 113.3 in the euro area.
The EURUSD held around the 1.11600 level after the news and is attempting to build a base before going to test some levels in rapidly declined from. My first target above would be1.12800 but I only see that as a temporary level of interest before we come lower again.
According to a final report published by the University of Michigan this afternoon, the Consumer Sentiment Index decreased by 4.8% monthly to 67.2 points in January. Year-over-year, the index plunged 14.9%.
Both goods and services prices rose on a yearly basis in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. Prices for energy and food increased 29.9% and 5.7%, respectively. The Core PCE price index for December rose 4.9% from one year ago, the fastest growth since September 1983 and above expectations of 4.8%.
According to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal income rose by $70.7 billion (0.3%) in December. DPI (disposable personal income) increased by 39.9 billion dollars (0.2%), while PCE decreased by $95.2 billion (0.6%).
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. With the above data showing that Personal expenditure is growing year on year, this is a good thing, but there is a fundamental problem in that the Federal government are not spending enough, in fact, what they are spending is being outweighed by what they are currently taxing back out. We are seeing the Atlanta Fed forecast for US GDP returning to practically zero, which could quite easily be negative and recessionary by the time the final analysis is completed.
Brent was unable to push past the $90 per barrel and this may be the case until we get a decent pullback into value. There are more barrels being put into the markets from February as the OPEC+ reductions are unwound. The strong dollar also means commodities will find it hard to appreciate in price for much longer.
Looking at the USDCAD chart I am now expecting next week to test through the 1.2800 level and for the DXY to carry on higher through $97.50. On the DXY H4 chart there was a decent reversal candle after the second test of $97.40 and if we do get a drop down into $96.20-$96.50 I am expecting a continuation higher in the greenback next week.
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