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Canadian inflation data and a drop in US oil inventories boost the CAD

Inflation is still rising as energy costs as much as anything, keep rising. There are still supply disruptions and people are still affected by the coronavirus, so today’s jump in Canadian inflation figures came in higher as expected, but the magnitude of the jump was a surprise.


Market Wrap


Canadian inflation data came in hot today jumping to 4.1% for August from 3.7% in July. The market watchers had been expecting a slight rise, so this 0.4% increase has pushed the Canadian dollar higher against its peers.


The overall composition of the forex map is balanced so not a risk-on/off day as such. Though there has been a move into the yen after Japanese Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda gave a speech earlier today, in which he stated that the domestic economy will recover amid further vaccine progress. Kuroda said that while inflationary pressures in Japan aren't as strong as those in the United States, the underlying inflation dynamics aren't as weak. Additionally, he noted that he believes the inflation rate will steadily go up until reaching the 2% target sometime in 2023. Over the last 20 years since the BoJ started QE purchases, the Japanese inflation rate has flirted with 2% only for a couple of brief periods of time. Why Kuroda thinks doing the same thing will result in a different outcome is pure madness.


The USDCAD is weaker today as the flows went to the Canadian dollar but looking at the current chart it is hard to see a level to trade from just yet. The ActivTrades sentiment indicator for the USDCAD is currently showing 75% of retail traders are long the USDCAD, so there is a chance that this continues lower. If only to squeeze them out of their longs.


Helping the Canadian dollar is the oil markets and today's US EIA Weekly petroleum report. Weekly Cushing had been a draw on stocks down -1.103 mln barrels, with Crude stocks down -6.422 mln barrels which is much more than the expected -3.544 mln.


Brent crude has traded into a resistance level for the second time, so there is a real chance that we could see a test to the ascending trendline or possibly a break lower back towards $70 per barrel.


The GBPUSD has maintained its trading stance above the weekly pivot after UK inflation data rose to a 9 year high. There has also been some juggling of positions within the UK government which could have caused concern for the pound, but so far largely ignored, mainly due to Chancellor Rishi Sunak retaining his job.

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