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  • Writer's picturen ev

Euro capitulates as safe-haven flows increase and US dollar gains

The markets are trading with a higher amount of volatility and pricing in several factors which include: Higher interest rates, supply chain disruption, and conflict.

Market Wrap

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -0.7 in January of 2022 from 31.9 in December, far below market expectations of 25. A decline in demand for goods occurred amid the spread of the omicron coronavirus variant, the first contraction in NY manufacturing since the second quarter of 2020. It ends 18 consecutive months of growth. 22% of respondents reported an improvement in conditions over the past month, while 23% reported a worsening.

The US dollar index continued its rally today even though the NY Empire State Manufacturing report showed a declining situation. With the euro having such a big influence on the DXY today’s demise in the single currency was largely responsible for today's move in the greenback. There was also a further appreciation in the US 10-year yields which today breached the 1.850% price level. The move in US treasuries is because investors are starting to price in even early rate hikes than first expected.

The EURUSD traders on the ActivTrader platform have increased their long position today and are now above 71% on the long side.

The EURUSD however dropped through the 1.13500 like a hot knife through butter having found very little support at the daily 20 & 50 EMA’s. The US Secretary of State will meet up with Russia’s Foreign Minister on Friday and ask for the Russians to step down from militarisation on the border of Ukraine and in Belarus. A hot war between Russia/NATO/The West would be very bad for the euro.

Earnings season is now well in its way and unfortunately, despite good revenue generated by the Goldman Sachs Group (GS), the share price of the firm took a nosedive along with the rest of the finance cohort in the DJIA apart from VISA.

In its fourth quarter, GS reported net revenue of $12.6 billion, up 8% from the same quarter in 2020. The company's diluted EPS fell 11% to $10.81, while its net earnings dropped 13% to $3.9 billion. Revenue grew 33% to $59.3 billion, earnings per share rose 140% to $59.45, and net income rose 129% to $21.6 billion.

"Goldman Sachs has had an extraordinary year in 2020. The firm's exceptional performance is a testament to the strength of its client franchise and people. Our management team remains committed to growing Goldman Sachs, diversifying our businesses, and delivering strong returns for shareholders," said Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon.

If the banks are coming off their recent highs due to higher probabilities the future will have fewer earnings, the 50% retracement of the post-COVID-19 rally would get GS back to $278 from the current price of $352.

The forex heatmap is mixed with no easily identifiable risk-on or risk-off bias. However, the S&P500 is a sea of red with no real cyclical winners.

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