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GBPUSD at support level after consumer confidence data

The markets are caught in some tight ranges again as the bigger moves from last week haven’t really followed through in this week’s price action. If anything, we are sliding back into familiar territory. US stimulus could get the trends moving again and inflation data today from the US could give the markets something to re-price from in the US session.

Market Brief

In the Asia-Pac session, data from “Growth from Knowledge” (GfK) regarding the UK showed that a survey of 2000 people hadn’t moved from the previous reading of -9.

GfK client strategy director Joe Staton said: “A repetition of last month’s score doesn’t mean confidence is about to nose-dive. The upwards trajectory for the index since the dark days at the start of the pandemic is currently still on track.

The GBPUSD is starting the day softer but has found support again at 1.3900 and is currently trading above the previous day’s lows. There is overhead resistance, so the easiest path for the pair to take is to the downside, and an accelerated move below the 1.3888 would see further declines in the currency pair more likely at the start of next week's trading. The double bottom from March this year is a great target for the bears.

Into the London, open Europe bourses were mostly higher as today’s latest round of consumer confidence reports for Germany reported that consumer confidence for July is set to improve when compared to the previous month. But as the opening bell rang the DAX had fallen 100 points from the pre-session highs, as the German GfK consumer sentiment for July came in better than expected at -0.3 versus analysts’ predictions of -4.

"We are leaving the lockdown behind us more and more. Sharply falling incidences and significant progress in vaccination allow ever more extensive loosening or openings. In addition, vacation is now possible again. This ensures increasing optimism, which is also expressed in better consumer sentiment," GfK consumer expert Rolf Burke noted.

The ActivTrades sentiment indicator for the USDJPY is showing an extreme bearish reading for the US dollar even though the Japanese COVID-19 situation is worsening. The Japanese Health Minister Tamura Norihisa has said that the country's government might introduce a new state of emergency in Tokyo to avoid the further spread of the disease “as the number of vaccinations performed has not yet reached a satisfactory level.”

The USDJPY had been trading at new 2021 highs and daily momentum, as well as price action, is all indicating higher prices can be expected. A close below the daily 50 ema would be the first indication that a change in trend could be occurring and the major support level from the daily 200 ema is around 108.00 currently. With the sentiment indicator being so bearish, the likelihood is that these retail traders will get trapped into a heavier short position and then squeezed out of it.

The US dollar index is still at relatively elevated levels and trading around the daily 200 ema. A break and close lower than the last couple of days' lows would be a bearish continuation signal with the first target to the downside being the daily 20 ema. The news that a $1 trillion infrastructure bill could be passed by the end of next month is encouraging and this could be supportive of the US dollar as political uncertainties diminish. If so the recent price action could be a bull flag that is compressing under the 200 ema and the upward projection would be up towards the $94 handle.

There is little Tier 1 data out today that could be market moving, so headlines around Russia and Iran may prove to be tricky trading on algo spikes, but we also have Core PCE which will give the Federal Reserve more data on how fast inflation is accelerating and will be discussed in next month’s FOMC meeting.

Other news that will keep the markets on their toes will be from the central bank speeches. At 11.30 BST the EURUSD could move on quotes from ECB de Cos, who is a Dove, so EURUSD down if the tone is more dovish. Then from 3 pm BST we hear from Fed’s Kashkari who is also a Dove and could be the reversal of the EURUSD price action if their tone is more dovish. After several other Fed speakers, we end the session with US Fed’s Williams who hopefully doesn’t add anything into the close as he is speaking at an awards ceremony.

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