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GBPUSD higher as UK unemployment lower than forecasts

The end of the furlough scheme in the UK appears to have had the desired effect. More people in work, depression avoided. We just hope the government can swerve imposing any more lockdowns. The RBA is pushing the window of opportunity wider in terms of raising rates, as I suspect all central banks will do. Though the Bank of England may now be the first to raise rates as employment and inflation are signaling all is well for the Bank of England to proceed.


Market Brief


In the three months to September, the UK unemployment rate declined to 4.3%, the lowest since July 2020, and below expectations of 4.4%, as the labor market continues to recover from the pandemic. In October, the first month following the end of the government's furlough scheme, there was a record high net flow from unemployment to employment, and job vacancies reached a record high. In the ONS report, job vacancies rose to 1,172,000 from August to October 2021, an increase of 388,000 from the pre-coronavirus pandemic January to March 2020 level, with 15 of the 18 industry sectors posting records. Adzuna's online job advert estimates as well as single-month vacancies reached record levels in October 2021.


From July to September 2021, growth in average total pay (including bonuses) was 5.8% and regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 4.9%. Employee pay has experienced temporary changes that have inflated headline growth rates. As a result, these factors are now reducing and impacting growth rates less: base effects since the latest months compare with historically low levels when the Coronavirus pandemic first hit earnings; and compositional effects from a decline in the number of lower-paid jobs, which increased average earnings.

GBPUSD is looking strong as it re-enters the previous trading range, adding to the view the recent dip towards 1.3350 was a stop run following on from the Bank of England (BoE) rate disappointment. The 1.3500 level will be a key resistance level that needs to be breached for this bull move to continue.

The EURGBP is helping the traders who are bullish on Cable, as the cross has now gone below the impulsive move from the BoE MPC meeting. There is a possible area of demand starting at 0.84242 to keep an eye on for a rejection.

Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Philip Lowe said on Tuesday that "it is still plausible that the first increase in the cash rate will not be before 2024." He added, however, that "the economy and inflation would have to turn out very differently from our central scenario for the Board to consider an increase in interest rates next year." After the interruption caused by the Delta outbreak, Lowe said the Australian economy is "back on track," expecting unemployment to reach 4% by 2023. The RBA's inflation goal is 2%-3%, with wages growing at a bit over 3% to sustain inflation around the middle of the target band. The RBA will also continue to purchase government securities at the rate of $4 billion a week until at least mid-February 2022.


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) acknowledged in its meeting minutes that "the risks to the inflation forecast had changed." Members noted underlying inflation will increase gradually until it reaches the midpoint of the target range in 2023 while headline inflation will be impacted by energy prices and supply chain issues. The bank was optimistic about Australia's recovery in December and March quarters as restrictions are eased further, with GDP growing by around 3% over 2021, 5.5% over 2022, and 2.5% over 2023.


The AUDUSD hasn’t reacted well to the comments today from the RBA but is still within a rising market structure with significant swings making higher lows and higher highs. A breach of the rising trend line would be a sign that the AUDUSD would be heading a lot lower but the stochastic indicator is showing that the pair is currently oversold.

The forex heatmap is showing a mixed view for the start of the London session. Currently, the pound is the strongest and the New Zealand dollar is the weakest.

The USDJPY has finally broken out of the bull flag chart pattern, but the volume has not confirmed the breakout. I am expecting a retest of the breakout level before an impulsive move higher. I am also conscious of false breakout potential.

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