The FOMC will be the focus of the week and where we close today will have a lot of bearing on the direction of each asset going into November.
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States rose 5.4% at an annual rate (NSA) in September. In comparison with the previous month, the rate increased by 0.4% (SA) and above expectations of 0.3%. Almost half of the increase last month was attributed to the index for food, which increased monthly by 0.9% and annually by 4.6%. Overall, Core CPI (excluding food and energy) month-on-month increased 0.2%. In the wake of increasing energy prices and inflation around the world, precious metals prices surged today with spot gold prices accelerating towards $1800/oz and are now bumping up against a trend line from the May 2021 peak through the early September swing high.
According to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the EIA and because of Hurricane Ida, oil production in the U.S. fell to 10.6 million barrels per day in September, and it is likely to rise to 11.3 million barrels per day in December. In 2021, oil production will average 11 million barrels per day, reaching 11.7 million barrels per day in 2022. According to the EIA, the increase in rig counts is expected to offset the decline in production rates.
Earlier today Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed allegations that Russia uses energy to achieve its geopolitical objectives, saying such claims are "utter nonsense" and "politically motivated blather." In a speech at the Russian Energy Week 2021 in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia is increasing energy supplies to Europe, even above its contractual obligations, in contrast to the United States, which has shifted its energy supplies to Asia.
Maros Sefcovic, the European Union's Brexit Commissioner confirmed that Brussels has offered to remove 80% of checks on goods going from Britain to Northern Ireland. During a press conference, Sefcovic presented a new proposal for reaching an agreement with the British government within the framework of the Northern Ireland protocol. It is possible that Prime Minister Johnson will likely refuse the deal to negotiate a completely new protocol. The EURGBP has been pinned to recent levels around the 0.8490 to 0.8485 zone, with momentum and price action indicating lower prices are likely.
The ActivTrades sentiment indicator also shows that 86% of traders are bullish at these levels for the EURGBP which makes me feel that they will get stopped out on a sweep of the August lows.
Tonight is the FOMC meeting minutes and investors, traders, and analysts will be scouring the document for clues as to how likely the November meeting will bring the first taper of asset purchases. They will be also looking for signs of whether the committee will reduce both MBS and agency assets with treasuries or just MBS.
The US dollar index has dropped since the US CPI data came out and is now trading just below the median line of this rising channel and back into the middle of the corrective range carved out during October. The DXY has dropped -0.48% whilst the EURUSD has increased 0.52%.