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Natural Gas gains 150% in the last 6 months

A slow and shortened trading day due to the US celebrating its independence from the British. The morning's European PMI data did little to move the markets, with the big surprise coming from the OPEC+ meeting.


Market Wrap


With the USA respecting a bank holiday today the markets were thin at the London close and the overall trading subdued. Unless of course, you are an energy trader.


The daily crude contract is up to $75.60 per barrel at the time of writing as the OPEC+ meeting is postponed without any confirmed resumption date and the oil production levels unchanged. WTI is up 1.14% but Nat Gas is up 5.33% as the USA consumes and exports the most amount of NatGas ever.



The NatGas chart broke out of its recent consolidation period back in mid-April 2021 and has since tracked the price of WTI higher. In the last 3 months, the commodity is 102.43% higher but over the last 6 months, it has risen a staggering 152%.


The US dollar index didn’t move much today but it did take out Friday's low, signalling the US dollar sentiment is weakening. Tomorrow will either confirm or invalidate this move and if we do get some lower prices, the next support level will be the daily-200 ema.

The EURUSD is flat for the day, as the US is closed and the morning IHS Markit Eurozone Services PMI which was revised slightly higher to 58.3 in June 2021 is digested. The PMI data showed the Eurozone private sector activity grew by the most in 15 years. The eurozone Sentix investor confidence index climbed 11.7 points compared to the previous month but came in under market analysts' expectations. The UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI Final reading came in better than expected but the GBPUSD traded within the London range for the day.


The slightly weaker US dollar also translated into a slightly weaker USDJPY. In the morning's analysis, I showed how the majority of traders on the platform are short this pair and that I expect them to get squeezed on the next US dollar critical news.

Of the major indices that I follow the UK FTSE did better than the DAX today, maybe on the back of Prime Minister Johnson’s announcement that the final decision on lifting restrictions will be on July 12th, rather than any bad news out of the eurozone. The Ichimoku cloud on the daily time frame is a greater indicator of how the FTSE 100 is grinding higher. The index hasn’t reached all-time highs like the DAX or US Indices but is slowly making new monthly highs and higher lows and with a bit of good data should get to February 2020’s high as the market structure on the lower time frames is not presenting many more roadblocks above 7239.00.

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