The US dollar paused today as ISM Services data came out better than expected and the market waits for employment data from the USA. Commodity forex pairs are doing well and the oil market is pushing higher on global economic growth and a tight energy market.
The forex heatmap at the London close is showing that the risk-on sentiment has returned to the commodity pairs and that the flows are moving out of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc safe-havens. The US equities are doing their best to bounce with the Nasdaq already up 300 points from the main level of trading yesterday.
The US ISM Services PMI came in slightly better than the previous month and was above the market analyst’s expectations. With services feeling the brunt of the disruptions last year, this is a positive sign that the US economy is doing well a year on. There are ongoing labor, logistical, and materials disruptions but these things appear to have not gotten worse.
The US dollar index is currently trading within yesterday’s price range and above the previous swing high which is acting as current market structure support. Tomorrow’s ADP number may come in better than expected based on today’s ISM services number so that for me will be a tell, on which way we can expect this US dollar to move next into the non-farm payrolls. There is still a long way to go before the debt ceiling and spending bills are signed off, so there is inherent risk building in the US dollar and US debt.
Senator Joe Manchin said on Tuesday that he is "not ruling out" supporting a reconciliation bill worth between $1.9 trillion and $2.2 trillion. Democratic lawmakers originally proposed a $3.5 trillion spending package, but there had been plans made up for a $6 trillion spending package. According to US President Joe Biden, the bill will have to be trimmed since neither Senator Manchin nor most other moderate Democrats are likely to vote for it.
The pound is doing well today after a bullish Prime Minister said that the United Kingdom is at a turning point and could pivot towards a high wage, high skills economy. "What I don't think would be a good idea would be to go back to the kind of low wage, low investment, low skill approach that we've had before," the leader asserted.
PM Johnson doubled down on that sentiment saying that businesses won't be able to introduce large numbers of low-cost foreign labour like before which was a way to suppress wages. Whether the UK FTSE companies can keep profits will be the next question.
OPEC+ chose yesterday to stick with their previous production deal and abandon plans to increase its output by any substantial amount. Oil futures rose over 2% to reach multi-year highs today adding to the inflation story. Oil traders will also be watching API's report on oil stocks in the United States, set for release later today.
The measured move in Brent up to $90 per barrel looks very probable with the rate of change in recent prices. The momentum and price action are making higher highs with very little market structure to act as resistance. Clearing the 2018 highs is very significant with the next milestone being all-time highs.