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  • Writer's picturen ev

Oil drops 4% on worse than expected manufacturing data and additional OPEC+ output

The US session saw a change in sentiment from this morning as risk assets tested towards the highs before falling back. Oil has dragged sentiment down with its price per barrel as traders are concerned with the Manufacturing data and continued disruptions from the coronavirus.

Market Wrap

The yen has caught a bid in the US session following on from this afternoon’s US economic data. US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in softer than expectations at 59.5 versus the predicted figure of 60.8. Construction Spending for the US month over the month also came in weaker than expectations as did Manufacturing Prices. The bottlenecks and shortages that have been a weight around industries necks persist and the market seems to have taken a view that although the numbers were disappointing, they were solid under the circumstances. At the time of writing the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P500 and the Nasdaq were all off their day’s highs, but they were also still green on the day.

The USDJPY continues to tumble and fall and is looking more likely to test the 109.00 level as traders move into the yen. The DXY is keeping its head up above the daily 200 exponential moving average and is currently trading within Friday’s range.

If the 109.00 level were to break the daily-200 ema is rising to meet price and that could act as a dynamic support. Though usually, I find, if the price has popped above a swing high and then immediately come back inside the range, often, the price will go to the opposite side of the range to test that. The look above at the start of July 2021 and subsequent price action has me now targeting a possible test of the April swing lows.

As a contrarian trader, I am also noticing more retail positions going into long the USDJPY, so my thesis of a continued short is building stronger.

As we approach the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision the United Kingdom health authorities released figures that show in the past 24 hours 21,952 new coronavirus cases were registered in the country. This is a drop of 27% fewer cases being reported than last week. With most adults double vaccinated in the UK, there could be a case for the BoE to reduce a lot of the stimulus support designed to prop up the economy. The UK Treasury has already started removing furlough schemes and over the weekend talk on higher taxes was discussed across the media.

The pound on the daily chart has now unfortunately traded outside of the rising channel and this could be the start of a larger correction. Bulls of the GBPUSD will be looking to the 20 and 50-period ema’s to act as dynamic support or for the greenback to continuing depreciating.

Crude has dropped nearly 4% and found support at the daily-50 ema, on the back of declining manufacturing economic data releases from China and the United States.

On the supply side, the first of five monthly OPEC+ alliance's 400,000 barrels per day output hikes started yesterday.


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