Energy prices are the main culprit for the swings in inflation, regardless of which country you live in. The headline figure is expected to keep rising but more importantly, the CORE which removes the volatile food and energy is also trending higher. Inflation is actually a negative for a currency as each unit is worth less over time. The recent lift in the US dollar market has started to move away from the rising yields and is reflecting this higher inflationary phenomenon.
Market Brief
China's consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.5% on an annual basis in December but still fell short of market expectations, according to a report released today by the country's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
As a result, consumer prices on a year-over-year basis dropped from 2.3% in November. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.7% from November to -0.3%.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the monthly producer price index (PPI) grew by 1.5% over December 2020.
Today's highlight will be the latest US inflation data since it's the final piece of the data jigsaw before the January FOMC meeting. Decembers Inflation is forecast to have risen above 7% year-over-year, adding further pressure on the Fed to act more aggressively. The core inflation rate is also predicted to have risen 5.4% year on year.
There is relatively little on the docket today apart from inflation data. There are a couple of Fed policymakers scheduled throughout the day. Aside from that, only November's eurozone industrial production data is of note, and the weekly EIA Crude stocks is expected to support the current price.
The cost of Brent crude is rising fast having cleared the market structure resistance swing highs. The daily 20, 50, and 200-period EMAs are all now rising and stacked in a bullish momentum formation. The next area to be tested in my opinion will be the double top at $85.00, though with China locking down 3 provinces now, there is no guarantee that demand will grow much further until we get a handle on the latest COVID-19 variant outbreaks. Today ECB’s Villeroy who is also the head of the Bank of France said that they will do whatever it takes to get on top of inflation as it appears to be peaking, though the high energy prices are a key problem.
The forex heatmap is currently reflecting the big themes this morning. Chinese lower inflation has given the yuan a lift and the rising oil process is supporting a strong Canadian dollar. The rest of the forex map is mixed, so no clear direction for risk ahead of the US CPI data.
The USDCAD is weighing on the US dollar as we approach a significant rising trendline. 79% of traders on the ActivTrader platform are bullish the USDCAD despite the daily price closing below the 200 EMA. We’re going to have to wait for these traders to get squeezed out of their position until we see a bottom in this pair.
In the opposite direction, 71% of traders using the ActivTrader platform are bearish the GBPUSD as it has firmly closed above a descending trendline and also above the daily 200 EMA. In both the USDCAD and GBPUSD the sharp turn of events has left the 20,50 and 200 EMAs at odds with the price action. Though on the GBPUSD the 20 EMA is aggressively pointing higher now and has crossed the 50 EMA. As these two short time frame averages move closer to the 200 EMA I am expecting some compression in the price action.
If the markets also start to smell blood in the water for PM Boris Johnson as he comes under attack from large swathes of the country and from within his own political party, we could see the pound come under pressure too. One thing I have learned is that if there is uncertainty in the leadership and the markets are unable to predict the future, they usually grab their money and park it somewhere else. Which would be bad for the pound in this case.