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OPEC+ impasse is causing Oil to drop, US markets bid ahead of FOMC minutes

Markets do not like uncertainty, the fall in Oil is unwinding a lot of optimism that was priced in ahead of the OPEC+ meeting which failed to come to an agreement. The US dollar is cashing in ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, but there is no guarantee that they reveal anything not already priced into the markets.

Market Wrap

Oil dips for the second day but the price action unwinds two weeks of gains. Before the start of the US session the newswires came a live to a Wall Street Journal story which ran the headline “U.A.E. Pushes to produce more crude, creating OPEC deadlock.”

U.A.E. officials said, “This is the time to maximize the value of the country’s hydrocarbon resources, while they have value,” said a person briefed on the U.A.E.’s strategy. “The aim of the investment is to generate revenue for the diversification of the economy, both for investment in new energy and, as importantly, in new revenue streams.”

OPEC’s de facto lead producer Saudi Arabia wants output raised in stages by a total of two million barrels per day (BPD) between August and December 2021. Saudi Arabia is also pushing to extend remaining OPEC+ cuts until the end of 2022, instead of letting them expire as planned in April. The extensions into 2022 are a red line for the UAE, everything else they could accommodate.

Saudi Arabia may be right to hold off from letting the UAE increase output as that would lead to other producers wanting to increase their market share. Today’s EIA report cut the world oil demand forecast for 2021 by 80k barrels per day.

The next big news that the markets are waiting on is the FOMC meeting minutes. Today’s action in the TLT shows the market is pricing in lower yields as the US benchmark bonds rallied 0.35%.

The US dollar index is up today on good JOLTS job opening data, though the Economic Optimism survey came in under expectations. The appreciation in US dollar prices has been good for the USDCAD along with the falling oil prices. Canadian Ivey PMI (SA) for June came in much better than expected at 71.9 versus the previous 64.7 but the Canadian dollar was unable to move on that data.

Traders on the ActivTrader platform are bullish the USDCAD pair by 65% to 35% bearish. The daily 200 ema is just above the day's highs and the Cup and Handle technical pattern is still in play. Considering the US dollar index has broken above the trend line that had acted as a bit of resistance a move to the April swing high is more probable now, so further upside in the USDCAD is my current idea. If there is more uncertainty within the oil markets, we could see the USDCAD accelerate higher.


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