Last night’s FOMC meeting minutes release has done nothing to keep the bullish momentum rising at the London open. The market looks to be taking profits having priced in all of the Hawkishness it could muster from the June meeting. The re-pricing could be reversed on the back of the ECB’s assessment of the eurozone economy but is unlikely.
The London open has started with a risk-off feel. The German DAX and UK FTSE100 have both dropped as German trade surplus data miss’ expectations and drops to €12.3 billion in May. Later this morning the market hears from European Central Bank President Lagarde, who will talk about the current European economy and how COVID-19 has disrupted progress. Overall global growth worries have had a negative effect on the major indices through the night following on from the FOMC meeting minutes release. The Fed said substantial further progress still needs to be seen in the American economy.
With England reaching the Euro 2020 football final, we may see an uptick in spending in the coming weeks and monthly data. If England were to beat the Italians on Sunday general optimism would be higher and that would be great for everyone. As it is we’re seeing the FTSE100 test down towards the weekly lower range bounds and with this bearish momentum, we could be testing the weekly 20-period ema for support.
The pound is also struggling to capitalize on any good cheer following the win last night against Denmark, as the flows are going into traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen, Swiss franc, and US dollar.
Today’s economic calendar will be dominated by the ECB at 1:30 pm BST and the US data drop for Initial Jobless claims. I would expect a little move to happen on the release and then larger trending moves when the US futures open an hour later.
Later today we also receive the EIA stocks change and of late the data has shown a draw on inventories, which is most likely an increase in demand and a growing economy. Supply issues are going to move the global energy markets as we have discussed in previous briefings. Crude is continuing to test lower and has some way to go before finding any previous resistance that may act as support before testing into the weekly moving averages.