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The EURUSD finds old support becomes resistance at 1.1600

The week’s focus is the ADP and then the NFP data prints, so unless there are some big economic surprises out of the scheduled data today, the only potential elements of volatility today will be from headline news. There could be a pause in the selloff of equities but that depends on whether the market has the energy to stop the downside momentum or whether there is still too much potential risk to buy this dip.

Market Brief

On a daily chart, the price action is being capped by the daily 20 and 50-period ema’s which are showing bearish momentum as the price continues to trade below the 200 periods ema and has so far failed to make a new swing high.

Earlier today the Reserve Bank of Australia retained its target cash rate at 10 basis points and 0% on Exchange Settlement balances. For the April 2024 Australian Government bond, the government will also maintain its 10 basis point target. The RBA will hold its $4 billion a week purchase of government securities until at least mid-February 2022, rather than tapering.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in the statement that "the Delta outbreak has interrupted the recovery of the Australian economy, and GDP is expected to have declined materially in the third quarter.". The outbreak is affecting many parts of the economy, but the impact is uneven, with some areas facing very difficult conditions while others are continuing to grow strongly.”

After the statement, the AUDUSD dropped 50 pips but found support on the hourly chart at the 200-period ema around the 0.7255 price level.

Looking at the forex heatmap the Aussie dollar opens the London session weakest compared to its peers, while the US dollar begins the day stronger. This week's Chinese bank holidays, which are traditionally good for the retail sector, may have induced a relative strength in the Chinese yuan. After US Vice President Biden's comments last night, the euro has seen an increase in price this morning. According to Biden, the European Union is a "fundamental partner" for the US.

Last night saw a meeting was held between the European and US leaders on ways to implement the results of the June EU-US summit, as well as the work of the Trade and Technology Council. Additionally, they discussed "leveling the playing field" when it comes to international taxation and extending their cooperation to fight the coronavirus pandemic. Last week’s AUKUS deal, still has ripples of tension with some officials calling for a "pause and reset" in relations.

The 1.1600 level could prove to be too much for the EURUSD as it was previously strong support in 2020. If we see a lower low today the probabilities are stacked in the bear's favor of a move down to the 1.1500 level. A move towards the Andrews Pitchfork median line was also quite likely.

This morning’s Final PMI data readings out of the UK and Europe came in better than expected. The IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI final data Including IHS Markit Eurozone Services PMI showed that growth had slowed further in September as demand pressures cooled and supply issues constrained business activity. After accounting for seasonal factors, the IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to 56.2 in September, down from 59.0 in August and the lowest reading since April.

The report stated,

“Although indicative of a strong expansion in business activity, it marked a considerable slowdown from the expansions seen between June and August, which were among the fastest in 23 years of data collection.”

A report of the ISM services survey will be released later today in the US. In August, the index slipped, but it followed an unexpectedly strong print in July, which means it remains at levels consistent with historically strong economic growth. A recent US PMI Services report shows that activity is slowing down further. Several factors were identified as factors responsible for the slowdown, including supply issues as well as a summer expansion in Covid cases that may have slowed consumer demands for some services. PMI and ISM haven't always moved in sync on a month-to-month basis and with other measures of near-term weakness, expectations are for the ISM to drop towards 60.7.

The previous swing high on the US dollar index has also acted as support today, so if there are any bears left in the US dollar trade, they will have to show their hand soon or they risk losing the momentum to the downside.

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