Trading during these conditions is hard, so picking out high probability trades and keeping risk very small is a good idea. There is a constant flow of news, of which some contradicts or surprise, which is great for volatility but can lead to several fake-outs.
The S&P500 has rallied today following on from some good unemployment data and Fed talk that stated the taper will happen quicker and that long-run inflation expectations have been remarkably stable. If the S&P500 can maintain these prices at the close and re-capture the daily 50 ema this will give traders more reason to stay bullish on good NFP numbers tomorrow.
The US Department of Labor reported today that initial jobless claims increased by 28,000 from the previous week's revised figure to reach 222,000 for the week ending November 27. Compared to the prior week's revised average, the four-week moving average fell by 12,250, marking the lowest level since March 14, 2020.
Joe Biden praised the recent results of the country's job cuts and initial jobless claims, noting the latter has declined by more than 70% since he became president.
Job cuts in the United States decreased 34.8% from October, according to a Challenger jobs report published today. November saw 14,875 dismissals, a 77% decline on an annual basis, and the lowest figure since May 1993.
"America's job recovery is strong, and our COVID strategy is allowing millions of workers to keep jobs. There is still more to work to build our economy back better."
OPEC+ confirmed on Thursday their decision to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day in January 2020.
According to a statement issued following the 23rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, OPEC+ extended the compensation period until June 2022 as requested by some underperforming countries and requested, that they submit their plans by December 17th.
The Brent oil contract shows the bears are still in control as they have been for several weeks but the news from OPEC+ today hasn’t done enough to get through the demand level formed back in August 2021. A break of that swing low would be a major potential structural break and one which would accelerate prices to the downside if COVID restrictions in Europe and the USA were to ramp up.
The forex heatmap shows the shift from the euro into the US dollar from this morning, as news came from Germany that there will be tighter restrictions on movement for those that are unvaccinated and that certain activities will be also restricted or shutdown.
The EURUSD had been toying with a potential trend reversal but has failed to break through an old trend line and resistance at the 1.1390 level. The DXY has recovered 30 cents today having taken yesterday’s high and is set for a retest of the high $96 prices. The trading range is still within Tuesday's high and low but usually when a consolidation pattern breaks to the upside like we saw today, whilst the underlying trend is bullish, the odds are in favor of a continuation higher.