Euroland is under some real pressure, but their services data shows that Omicron and COVID-related problems could be coming to an end. It’s just the build-up of NATO v’s Russia with Ukraine in the middle that is causing much concern. German manufacturing is also on a downtrend, so this won’t bode well for the Northern European economies either.
European and UK Flash PMI's come in much better than expected for the Service sector. The UK Manufacturing Flash PMI also did not disappoint. The reason for the dip in the EURGBP today is not just technical, it reflects the German Manufacturing Flash PMI's coming in worse than expected, plus the previous reading was revised lower.
Despite a new wave of infections linked to the Omicron variant, the data revealed that business activity across Germany's private sector grew at the fastest rate for six months in February. During the month, inflation pressures remained elevated, with goods and services charging near-record prices. After a brief stagnation in output growth in December, the German economy gained momentum in February. Despite a slowing in manufacturing production, overall activity climbed to its highest level since last August, led by the services sector instead of manufacturing as it had done in January. Despite a slower pace of goods production, data on new orders showed the largest increase in six months. The rate of inflation in manufacturing was the slowest for a year, but input prices rose at a similar rate as at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, prices for goods and services were unchanged.
Geopolitics had also been forcing traders to move their euros to safer havens. The forex heatmap shows an easing of that flow even as reports are coming in that Kiev continues to shell parts of Eastern Ukraine. This may be a grab for some land ahead of high-level talks between political leaders, which is where the market may be pricing a resolution?
The ActivTrader sentiment indicator shows that there is still a very large bullish position and as a contrarian indicator we should be looking to sell the rip.
The weekly EURGBP chart clearly shows the extent of the downtrend which started at the break of structure in January 2021 and has been grinding lower since price action got below the 200-period moving average. The target has always looked like the equal lows around 0.8280 but we could get an overreach into the 0.8000 big figure and Brexit breakout levels.
To give me more conviction that the EURGBP had solid resistance above to protect a buy stop, I would like to see the lows from the 16th of February 2021 tested and then rejected. Until that happens the worry is that at some point we go there and therefore any stops below it will get tripped.
0.8365 on the m30 chart would be a great spot to add to shorts as there would have been the 200-period EMA acting as dynamic support and a possible alert to some traders to sell the rips. The red candle following the morning's news should be the first zone to get tested and quite possibly the 0.8345 could be too much in terms of resistance for price to get back 100 pips higher.