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  • Writer's picturen ev

USDCAD moves higher as does Oil, as the long-term correlation breaks down.

The markets were rather mixed today with some assets moving within a tight range whilst others extended out of a range before heading back in on a false breakout. The summer trading months and low volatility are here, and everyone is awaiting the US FOMC announcement tomorrow.

Market Wrap

In the overnight session, the Australian RBA minutes show that the central bank is going to stay accommodative and that their policies will not deliver on the goals for the labor market and inflation until at least 2024. They did note that the Australian economy was transitioning from an economy in recovery to an expansionary one and that wages will have to rise.

UK Average earnings for April 2021 came in at 5.6% versus the expected 5.3% and above March’s reading. There was also an uptick in the employment figure which beat expectations and the previous readings. UK employment change was 113k, but May flash employment estimates are 197k, so this could be good news for the future.

US Retail Sales were disappointing today coming in at -1.3% versus the -0.8% predictions. This also shows that May retail sales dropped from April’s flat line market. Last Friday was the end of the stimulus cheques in America until some new deals get done, for at least 4 states, who would rather their citizens go back to work than collect dole. The fiscal spending in the USA has been massive but this is the first time that the markets will be thinking of a change in political will towards increasingly looser monetary policies.

US PPI came in above expectations and overall better than the last set of data points. The US dollar hasn’t budged in any meaningful way today and is basically pinned to $90.55-$90.495 which is keeping the likes of GBPUSD and EURUSD range bound.

The USDCAD however is making a good run-up towards the highlight resistance area we have been monitoring. If the Loonie can break above 1.2200 it will be interesting to see which level actually starts to act as resistance. The USDCAD has also started to diverge away from the Oil price action as the WTI contract had been adding pressure to the USDCAD. Now oil is firmly trading above $71.50 per barrel and looks more convincing the higher it gets towards the 2018 swing high.

The Nasdaq having printed new all-time highs is now ready to join the likes of the DOW on a bit of a correction ahead of the FOMC tomorrow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now trading into rising Ichimoku cloud support and a previous balance area which formed on the first correction of all-time highs. The German DAX and the UK FTSE would appear to be doing better today as they at least have green candles. Over the course of the coming months, it will be interesting to monitor how much better trading relations are between the US and the EU now that they have come to an agreement on the long dispute between Boeing and Airbus. French President Macron has already said that the lifting of tariffs on French wine destined for America will be a good thing for that industry.

The EURUSD is going to end the day flat having traded almost all the way up to the daily 20 ema. The current price action is centred around the daily 50 ema which has acted as support previous still may but this set of indecisive candles and the moving average could be a consolidation before another drop lower.

The EURUSD ActivTrader sentiment indicator is evenly matched for the bulls and bears. With the single currency ever so slightly more bearish at 51%.

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