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USDCAD rising on Oil oversupply worries and positive flows into the dollar.

A risk-on start to the London session should bode well for the US equities markets later today. The Antipodean currencies are on the up as China’s equities close in the green and the likelihood of the RBNZ to raise rates supports the New Zealand dollar.

Oil is getting crushed this week on the announcement of a compromise between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Market Brief

Commodity currencies and the US dollar both relatively strong against the yen, swiss franc and pound could indicate a risk-on day today, which would be a 180º reversal of yesterday's price action. Westpac analysts are predicting that the RBNZ will likely raise the official cash rate 3 times this year, which could be leading the repricing of the NZD this morning.

The US long bond yesterday as shown in the TLT exchange traded fund on ActivTrader had a bullish day, signaling one of two things. Either there is a shortage of the highest quality collateral and the reverse repo actions by the Fed are no longer filling the demand or that the inflationary pressures that we see today will not be long lasting and the need for an interest rate hike in the near term is diminishing.

The US dollar index is moving back up through the rising trend channel and momentum and price action are indicating higher prices.

In the overnight session, the Bank of Japan kept their bank rate at -0.1% but did warn of a decline in GDP in their quarterly outlook as the COVID-19 disruptions have remained for a prolonged period of time.

The USDJPY is rising on the move out of the yen into the US dollar and today’s price action has already taken out yesterday’s high and traded up to the low print from the 13th of July.

A close back above the daily 50 ema would be bullish but until we get a move above the recent swing high this market structure could still correct lower. The ActivTrades sentiment indicator is fairly balanced with the bulls just edging ahead of the bears by 53% to 47%.

The BOJ Governor Kuroda said that Japan’s economy is in a severe state but picking up as a trend and that the BOJ would not hesitate to take further steps if necessary.

The strength in the US dollar this morning is putting pressure on the GBPUSD and EURUSD. Global equities are split between the East and West with the overnight session and the start of the London session showing China, Japan, Australia, and India all printing lower prices for the day, whereas the UK FTSE, and European bourses all trading higher. Over the last 6 months, the only indices not to be now trading positive compared to the start of 2021 are the Hang Seng, Nikkei 225, and Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite.

The UK economy got a bit of a bid as traders digest the BOE’s more Hawkish outlook and are in anticipation of the UK economy opening up next week with COVID-19 restrictions being lifted. Union representatives from UNITE are warning that companies will struggle to fulfill orders with union members being forced to self-isolate if they may have come into contact with someone with a positive test result.

European inflation and trade data is likely to move the dial if the likes of the Eurozone HICP don’t come in as expected.

The USDCAD continues to rise with the US dollar and depreciating WTI. Oil is dropping on oversupply worries and rising COVID-19 disruptions which will lead to a reduction in demand. Oil is heading for its largest weekly fall since Q1 as OPEC+ reached a compromise on its recent disagreement between Saudi and the UAE, OPEC stated yesterday it expects oil demand to increase to pre-pandemic levels by 2022

Usually, I would be keen to fade a reading like the current sentiment indicator on the USDCAD. With 82% of traders long we could get above the 1.2650 level before these traders get squeezed. Momentum and Price Action are bullish and trading above the daily 200 ema is going to encourage more long positions.

Later in the US session, we have US Retail Sales for June and more speeches from Fed voters, which could make for an interesting open bell.


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